Indeks
Most professional gamblers have one piece of advice for those thinking about betting on NFL pre-season games: don't do it.
There are some good reasons for this. You don't know how much the teams care about winning, information on how long the starters will be on the field is almost impossible to obtain and form from the previous season is pretty much meaningless, partly because of personnel and coaching changes and because so many of the players will not be fully fit until early September.
Despite these issues, there are some value bets to be had on the pre-season games, as long as you pick your opportunities carefully.
I mainly look for how motivated coaches are to win. Some care about their pre-season record while some simply see them as practice games which have no bearing on how the team will perform in the regular season. If you study the coaches, you have a good chance of picking up some useful betting trends.
For example, Ken Whisenhunt, the Arizona Cardinals coach, showed little interest in winning pre-season games last season and was not overly worried about defense, meaning that the first three games of last season's pre-season saw an average of 56 points scored.
Baltimore, Chicago
Buffalo Bills coach Dick Jauron likes to win his opening game of the pre-season (he is now 5-0 over the last five years) but doesn't put any store in winning the third game of the season. So look to oppose them on Aug. 24 when the Bills visit the Colts.
Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith emphasizes defense in the final game of pre-season and the ``under'' has won in the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan loves to win his final game and has gone 7-1 against the spread in the last game of pre-season over the past eight years.
New coaches like to get pre-season wins on the board so fans feel confident that they are the right choice for the job. There are four new coaches this season -- Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons), John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens), Tony Sparano (Miami Dolphins) and Jim Zorn (Washington Redskins) -- and these teams should automatically be on your shortlist.
Smith, along with new general manager Thomas Dimitroff, looks the most interesting. He is almost certain to concentrate on tightening up Atlanta's defense and I expect the remaining three games of the pre-season to be low scoring.
Press Conferences
It is also worth keeping an eye on what players and coaches say in press conferences and other public pronouncements. Quite often a player will reveal that the team is going to focus on one particular aspect of play or that they simply aren't trying to win. Surprisingly, this often doesn't affect the betting line markedly, mainly because so few people are paying attention. But when I hear this sort of information, I tend to have a good bet.
Another angle related to pre-season performance only applies to betting in the regular season. At the end of the NFL season, look at the statistics posted by the starting players of the teams during the pre-season games. Then rank the teams on the basis of those statistics. This will give you a system that's a good indicator of how they will perform over the upcoming season and throw up some teams that the bookmakers have under-estimated.
If you do find a good opportunity, you may not find it that easy to make a large bet. Las Vegas sportsbook managers tend to limit action to as little as $1,000 per customer on pre-season NFL games, with the more cautious linesmakers keeping limits as low as $500.
Their logic is that anyone who wants to have a big bet is either just desperate to get some action on football after the action drought since Super Bowl or that they know some inside information about a team's plans.
Chris David, sports editorial director for the online sports betting information site VegasInsider.com, advises that bettors save their cash for the regular season.
``Don't blow your bankroll on pre-season just because you're excited that football is back,'' he says. ``Save your money for the real opportunities that will come in October and November and, from a betting point of view, treat all pre-season games with caution.''
(Joe Saumarez-Smith is chief executive officer of Sports Gaming, a U.K. management consulting firm to the gaming industry. He also owns European online bingo companies and odds comparison Web sites. The opinions expressed are his own.)
There are some good reasons for this. You don't know how much the teams care about winning, information on how long the starters will be on the field is almost impossible to obtain and form from the previous season is pretty much meaningless, partly because of personnel and coaching changes and because so many of the players will not be fully fit until early September.
Despite these issues, there are some value bets to be had on the pre-season games, as long as you pick your opportunities carefully.
I mainly look for how motivated coaches are to win. Some care about their pre-season record while some simply see them as practice games which have no bearing on how the team will perform in the regular season. If you study the coaches, you have a good chance of picking up some useful betting trends.
For example, Ken Whisenhunt, the Arizona Cardinals coach, showed little interest in winning pre-season games last season and was not overly worried about defense, meaning that the first three games of last season's pre-season saw an average of 56 points scored.
Baltimore, Chicago
Buffalo Bills coach Dick Jauron likes to win his opening game of the pre-season (he is now 5-0 over the last five years) but doesn't put any store in winning the third game of the season. So look to oppose them on Aug. 24 when the Bills visit the Colts.
Chicago Bears coach Lovie Smith emphasizes defense in the final game of pre-season and the ``under'' has won in the last five seasons. Meanwhile, Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanahan loves to win his final game and has gone 7-1 against the spread in the last game of pre-season over the past eight years.
New coaches like to get pre-season wins on the board so fans feel confident that they are the right choice for the job. There are four new coaches this season -- Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons), John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens), Tony Sparano (Miami Dolphins) and Jim Zorn (Washington Redskins) -- and these teams should automatically be on your shortlist.
Smith, along with new general manager Thomas Dimitroff, looks the most interesting. He is almost certain to concentrate on tightening up Atlanta's defense and I expect the remaining three games of the pre-season to be low scoring.
Press Conferences
It is also worth keeping an eye on what players and coaches say in press conferences and other public pronouncements. Quite often a player will reveal that the team is going to focus on one particular aspect of play or that they simply aren't trying to win. Surprisingly, this often doesn't affect the betting line markedly, mainly because so few people are paying attention. But when I hear this sort of information, I tend to have a good bet.
Another angle related to pre-season performance only applies to betting in the regular season. At the end of the NFL season, look at the statistics posted by the starting players of the teams during the pre-season games. Then rank the teams on the basis of those statistics. This will give you a system that's a good indicator of how they will perform over the upcoming season and throw up some teams that the bookmakers have under-estimated.
If you do find a good opportunity, you may not find it that easy to make a large bet. Las Vegas sportsbook managers tend to limit action to as little as $1,000 per customer on pre-season NFL games, with the more cautious linesmakers keeping limits as low as $500.
Their logic is that anyone who wants to have a big bet is either just desperate to get some action on football after the action drought since Super Bowl or that they know some inside information about a team's plans.
Chris David, sports editorial director for the online sports betting information site VegasInsider.com, advises that bettors save their cash for the regular season.
``Don't blow your bankroll on pre-season just because you're excited that football is back,'' he says. ``Save your money for the real opportunities that will come in October and November and, from a betting point of view, treat all pre-season games with caution.''
(Joe Saumarez-Smith is chief executive officer of Sports Gaming, a U.K. management consulting firm to the gaming industry. He also owns European online bingo companies and odds comparison Web sites. The opinions expressed are his own.)
